SGN Deep Dive: Buffalo Bills

By SGN Staff

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The Bills are a team that have many bettors split coming into this season. Last year on the air all summer long Tom Barton touted the Bills at nearly 3:1 odds to make the playoffs and believed so much in their defense he predicted they'd finish as the best defense in the NFL. That defense is still in tact and the Bills went out and added Stephon Diggs to give Josh Allen a deep weapon, Devin Singeltary will be the starter all season long, Zach Moss was brought in to give them a 1-2 punch behind Allen and that O-line should be even better playing together for a full season. 

The split opinions between sports bettors seems to lie within the thoughts of what exactly you think of signal caller Josh Allen. No one is questioning Allen's athletic ability or his cannon for an arm but Allen's precise game play is the question mark. Allen was just horrible last season on throwing the deep ball, he often decided to run inside the red zone rather than protect himself, and while he had good reads he often didn't trust his receivers. The counter that SGN will bring to this is his #1 receiver was a retread in John Brown. He did not have an established tight end, for much of the year he had a running back that couldn't catch out of the backfield and his slot receivers were very short and were hard to find. Now he gets Singletary, Diggs, and everyone moves down the depth chart. Digg's presence alone should help the deep passing game because Diggs ranked inside the top 10 in deep catches per catch radius last season. Then we get to Allen's running ability and what bothers us is people getting down on Allen for running too much, when we just gave the MVP to a QB who runs more than anyone in NFL history. 

The linesmakers have set the Bills at just about even money with the Patriots to win the AFC East. Their win total is set at 9 which would suggest that while people think they can win the division, they also think 9 wins wins the East. Their 20:1 odds to win the Super Bowl is more of a reflection on the powerhouse that is the AFC this season with Mahomes' Chiefs and Jackson's Ravens than it does the Bills. We are not bold enough to proclaim the Bills at 20:1 to win the Big Game is a safe bet but it's a bet that Tom did personally throw a few bucks on. We do like the Bills over and think at worst you'll get a push. 

As far as players go Tre White is insanely underrated and we've called him the 2nd best corner in the game. It's hard for a defensive back to win Defensive MVP so his 50:1 number isn't enticing even if it's clearly inflated. 

Zach Moss has a 30:1 number on him to win Rookie of the Year, but again we hesitate and will stay away because we like Singletary to carry the load. 

Josh Allen at 50:1 to win the MVP is however a long shot we might take a stab at. Allen's rushing stats are what can put him over the top and while we are not sure we will ever see a season again like Jackson put up last year, Allen can put up numbers that can open up eyes through the air and on the ground. Add to that his potential first place team and this is a longshot that makes sense. 

The SGN Best Bet however for this Bills team, value wise, is Sean McDermott to win the coach of the year. We have often seen that the best team in the league doesn't always get the coach of the year because expectations are there. McDermott has expectations but he also can topple the big, bad Hoodie and turn heads that way. At 18:1 SGN will be on this as well. 

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